Wide Area Evacuation

(updated  31st August 2007)

Keywords: simulating people, simulating crowds, simulating crowd dynamics, workshops

We developed Myriad to produce quick and reliable answers to very complex situations. One such use is in planning for the mass evacuation of a complex space. The following example was produced in 25 minutes (including the download of the satellite image). This is specifically useful for planning city wide evacuations. One of the most important elements in planning a wide area evacuation is taking careful consideration of the behavioural based safety of tens of thousands of people in the built and complex environment is often overlooked.

The images of people rushing to leave the collapsing World Trade Centre (911 - Sept 11th 2001) prompted this research and development initiative. As you can see in the details below Myriad plans routes that are the maximum possible distance/dispersal from the source, using the local geometry and roads to facilitate the most efficient mass evacuation routes. This was developed as a table-top exercise for emergency planning. We have deployed a flagship system at the UK Financial District - Canary Wharf

Example. City wide evacuation  This took a few minutes to produce....

The Myriad process - step by step analysis and crowd evacuation planning tool. For our flagship project at Canary Wharf we not only performed the complex analysis but also provided a real-time command and control communications system for the occupants.

Using commercially available satellite images we can zoom to most major towns and cities down to road level and begin to assess traffic congestion, optimal evacuation routes (maximum dispersal), logistics (using our queuing/transportation models and topography.

Step 1. Import Map

Step 2. Isophotic Image (grey = objects, Black = roads/walkways)

Step 3. Generate scenario

Click on the screen, enter the radius of potential threat, generate map. Note radial dimensions automatically corrected for roads. We have the facility to allow for atmospheric drift and can integrate a wide variety of atmospheric and environmental models.

Step 4. Generate Egress strategy.

We need to determine how and where to move the maximum number of people in the minimum time. We need to know which routes may become congested and force people to take flight on foot. We need to determine best routes for responders. We need to do this in a few seconds. This is a ROUGH CUT ANALYSIS and as such extracts the maximum information from the minimum data in the shortest possible time.

The red routes are the optimal egress/dispersion of people and traffic. Using the scaling function the minimum time to evacuate an area can be calculated with relative ease. Check the pages on Evacuation Strategies for further information.

Canary Wharf

We have deployed the following solution at UK Financial District - Canary Wharf.

"Canary Wharf is one of Europe's most vibrant, dynamic business districts and prides itself on the quality of environment and service available to its tenants. CWG contacted Crowd Dynamics to assist us in evaluating our public areas for crowd control in a wide range of situations. Crowd Dynamics has an international reputation for developing mathematical models and solutions for various public events. In this case, we wanted a tool to provide a common basis for occupants of the Canary Wharf estate to develop compatible responses to various security and safety related incidents. While the Canary Wharf estate currently has 60,000 staff employed in the development, a robust tool capable of dealing with crowds over 100,000 has been developed in conjunction with our major business tenants. We believe this innovative approach is another first for Canary Wharf and Crowd Dynamics." Anthony Partington (Canary Wharf Managing Director)

We are working on topographic mapping for floods, volcanic activity mapping for city wide evacuation and a range of logistics programmes for aid workers planning a strategy for assisted egress and support during large scale disasters.

We participate in a workshop for the Manchester Sports City in mid-2003 and are running workshops for large scale evacuation planning and strategies around the world.

Wed, 25 October Cities 'unprepared for disaster'

None of the UK's major cities is fully ready to deal with a major disaster or a terrorist attack on the scale of the 7 July bombings, a survey has claimed. The Reader's Digest looked at emergency planning in 10 cities and concluded that Liverpool was the least-prepared. The city was given a "readiness score" of 55% - its ambulance response times and police force being criticised. Birmingham was found to be the most ready (79%), with London on 70% and Leeds, Manchester and Bradford on 61%. Edinburgh, Glasgow, Sheffield and Cardiff each received a readiness score of 58%. Inadequate information Katherine Walker, of Readers Digest, said things had improved since the 7 July London bombings, but several cities would struggle to cope in the aftermath of a disaster. "Not one of the 10 provides adequate information on evacuation for the elderly and disabled, who are uniquely vulnerable in any crisis," she said. The survey used 11 indicators to assess how prepared the cities were to deal with a major natural disaster, terrorist attack, industrial accident or pandemic. It found that emergency planning in all the cities fell down in at least one respect. 'Crude and simplistic' Liverpool came in for particular criticism, with the survey saying communications systems used by emergency services in the city were incompatible. As a result, the report's authors claimed police, firefighters and paramedics would struggle to talk to one another in a crisis. And they said Liverpool's emergency evacuation plan was not clearly explained on the city's website. But the Merseyside authorities rejected the survey's findings, labelling them "superficial and inaccurate". In a statement, the Merseyside emergency services said: "Emergency planning is much broader than the crude and over-simplistic measurements contained in this report." The survey "in no way reflects the ability of a multi-agency response to deal with a disaster or large-scale emergency", the statement said. Birmingham scored top marks in five of the 11 indicators. London - identified as the UK's number one terrorist target - scored poorly on police capacity to cope with 999 calls and a shortage of acute hospital beds.