Crowd Dynamics Ltd - Jamarat Bridge

Please note that ANY environment where millions of people converge has a significant risk associated with the dynamics of crowds. We have collected details of international crowd related accidents - click here for details

Year	Year	Day	Time	Location	Number	Number
Hijjah			Time	Location	dead	injured
1414	1994	12	01:25	North of Jamarah Al-Soughra	266	98
1415	1995			No major accidents
1416	1996			No major accidents
1417	1997	12	15:10	North Side of the Eastern Entrance	22	43
1418	1998	12	13:30	North Side of the Eastern Entrance	118	434
1419	1999			No major accidents
1420	2000			No major accidents
1421	2001	10	08:12	North of Jamarah Al-Kubra	35	179
1422	2002			No major accidents
1423	2003			No major accidents
1424	2004	10	08:54	North of Jamarah Al-Kubra	249	252
1425	2005			No major accidents			1
1426	2006	12	13:30	North Side of the Eastern Entrance	363	289	A
1427	2006/7			No major accidents			2
1428	2007			No major accidents

1. Modifications to the OLD Jamarat Bridge. Introduction of elliptical Jamarah Pillars, increase of the area near Jamarah Al-Kubra). Crowd Dynamics Ltd ran a series of workshops in 2004 at the Ministry of Haj and were involved in the preparation for the 1425H Haj.

A. Report and analysis conducted on risk areas - submitted April 2005 - conclusions highlighted the time and location of likely accidents - East Side of Northern Entrance - after call to prayers. This was a predicted area of significant risk.

2. NEW Ground and First Floor Levels of the New Jamarat Bridge (see below) Crowd Dynamics modelled the New Jamarat Bridge using Myriad

Saudi state-run radio said Wednesday the death toll had climbed to 343. Some were trampled to death as pilgrims fled the fire. "Investigations indicate that the fire was an accident," Saudi Arabia's ambassador in London, Ghazi Algosaibi, said in a statement. "We are faced with a human tragedy which has no political implications." The Civil Defence and General Security REPLACED all the tents in a massive overnight operation and the scale of their efforts should be congratulated. 1997 Hajj News Story 05/06/1997. Prince Nayef reports that Mina fire was accidental. Minister of Interior Prince Nayef Bin Abdul Aziz, upon completion of investigations into the incident, today announced that the fire which broke out in Mina on April 15, 1997, was accidental, and not a criminal act. The disaster occurred when one of the pilgrims lit a gas stove to prepare his lunch. The fire spread in his tent and engulfed other tents in spite of all efforts to stop it, due to the gusts of the wind that day, which ranged between 36 and 60 kilometres per hour (23 to 38 miles per hour). Note: ALL the tents have been replaced by fire-proofing materials.

The death of 1,426 Moslem pilgrims converging on Al-Mu'aysam Tunnel. The pilgrims, 680 of whom were later identified as Indonesian and some 600 as Turkish, died of suffocation or were trampled to death in a frantic attempt to escape, as an estimated 50,000 worshippers converged simultaneously on the 500-metre long al- Mu'aysam tunnel to the pilgrim tent city of Mina towards Jamarat Bridge.

Security Forces Win Applause for Successful Haj Operation
Arab News

JEDDAH, 7 January 2007 — Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah yesterday commended the role played by Saudi security forces in making this year’s Haj a resounding success. “We appreciate the efforts of security forces in ensuring the safety and security of more than 2.54 million pilgrims who performed Haj this year,” the Saudi Press Agency quoted the king as saying. King Abdullah made this comment while replying to a message from Interior Minister and Chairman of the Supreme Haj Committee Prince Naif, who had informed the king that 2,540,436 pilgrims performed Haj this year. Security officers successfully carried out the Haj plan despite the tense regional and international situations, he added. Prince Naif said the establishment of the new Jamrat Bridge, the dispatch of pilgrims in groups to Jamrat and the introduction of a new force to control pedestrian movement in the streets of the holy sites had contributed to the successful organization of Haj.

The Jamarat Bridge was 30 years old. Following the accident at Jamarat Bridge in 2004 - Crowd Dynamics Ltd. modelled the elliptical pillars at the Jamarat Bridge and advised on several safety improvements to the site (increasing the width of the Al-Kubra stoning area, changing positions of the exit barriers (al-Kubra area) and pillar locations (ground floor). The main element of our analysis related to the change of shape of the Jamarat Pillars - from small circles to large elliptical walls. The Haj of 2005 passed without accidents as a result of these changes and the increased awareness of Crowd Dynamics by the authorities.

We modelled and validated the high density build up at the Jamarah pillars and used these models to assess the aspect ratio for the new elliptical Jamarah pillar/wall design. The behaviour of the pilgrims, waiting until noon in a vast crowd, puts an enormous load on the Eastern Entrance. The width is 45 metres, the crowd can exceed several hundred thousand which exceeds the safe capacity of the entrance.

We advised on the dangers of this "hard start" to the event (a "hard start" is when the crowd waits until a signal THEN proceeds to move).

In Jan 2006 an accident occurred at the entrance (see diagram above). In any high density crowded environment the areas of greatest risk are where the crowd change direction (corners) and/or change speed. Using Myriad II software we highlighted the areas of highest risk and documented this in a report to the Ministry in mid-2005. The report was ignored. To avoid repeating previous accidents a new, multi-tiered bridge has 12 different entry points and 5 levels (ground plus 4) which will change the dynamics of the entire valley. This new bridge will not be completed for the next Haj - but two levels (ground and first floor) will be operational for this Haj.

Crowd Dynamics assist in modelling and design of the OLD JAMARAT Bridge (2004) for the Haj (2005)

This project included assessing the crowd dynamics on the bridge and the effect of removing pillars on the ground floor (under the bridge). By using computer simulations we we able to define (value engineering) the optimal size of the Jamarah pillars (devil stones) and the ground floor layout/configuration of the pillars.

In this type of project a close liaison with the structural engineers and construction company is essential. We also highlighted, in numerous reports, the extreme high density problems at Al-Jamarat. The project was completed in 2004 for the 2005 Haj - there were no accidents in the 2005 Haj.

Below - simulation of the crowd density build up at Jamarah Al-Kubra (al-aqaba) the large Jamarah.

Below - new modelling system developed - allowing us to test changes to the geometry and/or barrier configurations

As with many of these news reports - I've been sent clippings and details from many people - could you please ensure that web links, copyright and other information is included - otherwise it takes me ages to track down the appropriate sources. We re-print these details in the interests of public safety and the numerous workshops and research activities we are involved in around the world. If you are going to quote from this website please check our disclaimer page. Also click here for links to other stadium disasters.